LONDON (Reuters) - LONDON, Jan 23 (Reuters) - The number of Britons claiming unemployment benefit posted a surprise fall in December to the lowest since mid-2011, in a rare show of strength from an economy flirting with another recession.
Bank of England policymakers have growing doubts about the value of restarting the central bank's programme of asset purchases, minutes of the central bank's January 9-10 policy meeting showed on Wednesday.
KEY POINTS
- Lowest claimant count level since June 2011
- Lowest ILO unemployment level since Mar-May 2011
- Lowest ILO unemployment rate since Feb-Apr 2011, when it was also 7.7 percent
- Highest number of people in work since records began in 1971
ECONOMISTS' VIEWS
GEORGE BUCKLEY, DEUTSCHE BANK
"The jobs data is going to perpetuate this question of the productivity puzzle because the numbers are exceptionally strong.
"Unemployment down, employment up, claimant count down, revised down the previous month as well. You've still got that issue about, while we've got weak economic growth, because we've going to see GDP in Q4 probably -0.1 percent, 0.2 percent. Also there's a six month lag normally between changes in the labour market and changes in GDP, so you get a change in GDP, then a change in labour market takes about six months.
"You rewind six months from these months and you had very weak GDP in the first half of the year so I think that's a big issue.
ON BOE MINUTES
"On the minutes, I think one of the most interesting statements is the sterling real exchange rate is too high. I think that's a pretty interesting comment, at least, possibly trying to influence the exchange rate."
ROB CARNELL, ING
"Whilst the fourth quarter for UK activity still looks likely to come in on the negative side of the ledger, the UK labour market continues to surprise with its resilience.
"And in spite of some high profile retail failures in recent months, and large-scale job losses in the automotive sector, the UK added a surprisingly large 90K jobs in the three months to November, with the ILO unemployment count falling by 37,000 over the same period, taking the unemployment rate down to 7.7 percent.
"Despite, or perhaps helping to deliver the better employment data, wages growth was even more subdued, with average weekly earnings rising at only a 1.5 percent rate down from the previous rate of 1.8 percent."
ON BOE MINUTES:
"Simultaneous release of the Bank of England minutes for the January MPC meeting showed the same 8-1 vote for no change as in December, with David Miles still voting for a 25 billion increase in the asset purchase scheme.
"Today's labour market report probably helps the case for another "no change" decision at February's MPC meeting, though that will hang in the balance pending Friday's GDP result, which will suggest triple dip for the UK, with more members likely to join Miles in seeking an expansion in the BoE's current stance if it disappoints."
ROB WOOD, BERENBERG BANK
"A positive surprise with employment, rising 90,000 and the productivity puzzle continues in the UK. Output looks to be flat lining while employment is still rising, continuing the pattern of the past year.
We suspect that this puzzle must come to a head soon. It seems unlikely to us that employment can continue rising while the economy is flat lining."
ON BOE MINUTES
"David Miles voting for more asset purchases, the other eight members voting for no change. There seemed to be a bit of hardening of individual positions in the minutes, it said some members were stronger in their beliefs that more asset purchases weren't needed. So it's more of the same, the debate remains - inflation is above target, productivity growth is weak - while that is the case, the economy can only grow so fast without setting off inflation."
ROSS WALKER, RBS
"The employment numbers were a little bit better than forecast but there's still a modest slowdown relative to over the summer months and the wage inflation numbers are still distinctly soft so I don't see why any of this would really change the policy bias."
ON BOE MINUTES
"The minutes were pretty much as expected, really. (David)Miles again the sole-dissenter. Maybe interesting that his vote seemed more clearly tied to preventing a currency appreciation.
"We've seen a 2 percent slide in Sterling's trade weighted rate over the last few weeks so at the margin maybe a slightly less doveish tone to the minutes, but I don't think it changes much."
ANNALISA PIAZZA, NEWEDGE STRATEGY:
"The UK labour market showed signs of surprising resilience at the end of last year despite the weak business cycle. In details, jobless claims fell by 12.1k in Dec from a downward revised -8.9k in Nov (previously reported at -3k).
"The outcome is much more dynamic than our expectations for a flat reading and market consensus for a slight 0.5k increase. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.8% in Dec, in line with expectations.
"All in all, today's report shows a surprising improvement in the labour market which is at odds with the development of the real economy that - in Q4 - is expected to have contracted by 0.5 percent quarter on quarter.
"Despite the relative strength of the labour market, earnings growth continued to moderate in Nov, with the average earnings index down to 1.5 percent from 1.8 percent in October. This is a clear sign of moderate negotiation power from employees that feel the pressure of earnings growing far less than inflation."
PHILIP SHAW, INVESTEC
"The employment numbers continue to flatter to deceive. The trends in both unemployment and jobs creation are completely at odds with the weakness with much of the real economy data that are being published.
"Whilst questions will be asked about the so-called productivity puzzle, the bottom line is that a robustly performing labour market is good for confidence and good for the public finances.
ON BOE MINUTES:
"No major surprise from the MPC minutes given that there is a quarterly inflation due next month, we weren't expecting fireworks from this meeting. Our view is that the MPC will keep the overall stance of monetary policy on hold throughout this year."
(Reporting by Sarah Young and Li-mei Hoang)
Source: http://news.yahoo.com/instant-view-jobless-claimant-count-shows-another-surprise-094736016.html
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